广发期货《农产品》日报-20251223

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - The short - term outlook for palm oil is positive, with potential for further rebound. However, domestic Dalian palm oil futures face resistance at 8,500 yuan. The fundamentals of soy oil are currently bearish, and the CBOT soy oil is expected to have limited upward movement. Rapeseed oil has seen a short - term rebound, but the upward momentum may be restricted due to a bearish sentiment in the domestic oils and fats market [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the market trend is slightly stronger due to increased demand around the Winter Solstice. The futures market is mainly focused on the post - Spring Festival market, and the futures price is expected to find support at around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downward space but no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2,750 [9]. Jujube - The jujube spot market has weak demand and supply exceeds demand, causing the futures price to be under pressure. The futures price may rebound slightly if there is a boost in the Spring Festival consumption; otherwise, it will continue to decline [12]. Apple - The apple market has weak demand, slow inventory clearance, and limited upward potential for the futures price. As the festival approaches, the market sentiment may improve, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn market may maintain a weak pattern in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, the U.S. cotton market will remain volatile. Domestically, the supply pressure of cotton is gradually easing, and the demand is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a relatively strong range, but there is limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - The global sugar supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain weak and volatile next week, and it is advisable to short on rallies [29]. Eggs - The egg market still has a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the market sentiment is not optimistic. The price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on December 19 was 8,250 yuan, down 1.79%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The inventory decreased, and the import profit was - 584 yuan, down 31.59% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on December 19 was 9,270 yuan, down 2.42%. The futures price of OI605 was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures Indicators: The basis of the main contract was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of the live - hog 2605 contract was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 560 yuan, up 6.67% [3]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with prices in Henan, Sichuan, and other regions decreasing, and prices in Hebei increasing [3]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.19%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 6.06%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12%. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased [4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,100 yuan. The futures price of M2605 was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - Soybean: The spot price in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan. The futures price of the soybean main contract was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Jujube - The futures prices of different contracts decreased, with the main contract (2605) at 8,820 yuan, down 0.84%. The spot prices in Cangzhou also decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the inventory remained stable [12]. Apple - The main contract (2605) price was 9,149 yuan, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan. The market arrival volume in some markets remained stable, and the national cold - storage inventory did not change [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of the corn 2603 contract remained unchanged at 2,192 yuan. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.44%. The basis decreased by 10.20%. The long - short spread increased by 2.78% [22]. - Corn Starch: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The basis increased by 10.26%. The 3 - 5 spread decreased by 2.13% [22]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract price decreased by 0.06%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% [25]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price and the 3128B index increased slightly. The industrial and commercial inventories increased, and the import volume increased [25][26]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The ICE raw sugar main contract price increased by 1.01%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.24% [29]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.38%, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.29%. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year [29]. Eggs - The price of the egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline slowly, and the market supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains [31].