广发期货《黑色》日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction, with the production dropping by 6.7% from the high level. The inventory reduction is decent under the impact of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level, while hot-rolled coil has slow inventory reduction after production cuts and maintains a year-on-year high inventory pattern. Production cuts support steel prices, and combined with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices repair upwards from the low level, but the demand is weak and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will remain in the range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coil will remain in the range of 3150 - 3350. Rebar maintains good inventory reduction, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can continue to be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coil, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in May should be exited at low prices. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is still weak. In May, iron ore rises to repair the discount. Considering the low level of hot metal, one can try to go long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore at low prices [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, showing weakness when rising. The spot price was basically stable compared with the previous trading day, and buyers were cautious. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments in this period decreased slightly month-on-month but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year-end volume rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value was at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the hot metal production continued to decline month-on-month, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. How to digest the hot-rolled coil inventory and the resilience of off-season demand will determine the downward space of hot metal. Based on the current hot-rolled coil inventory and the historical inventory-to-sales ratio, the downward space of hot metal is relatively limited. In terms of inventory, the inventory on Monday increased significantly month-on-month. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation results will determine when to trade the high-inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation situation, the hot metal trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend of decline, and there is obvious suppression from high inventory above the price. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend, with the range referring to 730 - 820. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term operations in the range of the 05 contract and try to short at around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price fell in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, putting pressure on coking profits and leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, the steel price oscillated at a low level, and there was a willingness to suppress the coke price. In terms of inventory, coking plants accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills reduced inventory. The overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position, and the coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the decline space of coking coal. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices (starting from the J2604 contract, the delivery deduction price for wet - quenched coke is 110 yuan/ton) [6]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, the coking coal futures continued to rebound, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to mixed trends, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate began to decline, and the trading improved. Traders restocked cautiously, and the thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, the daily output decreased slightly, coal mines accumulated inventory again due to unsalable products, and the coal mine output may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Mines rushed to ship at the end - year high - clearance level. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, coking profits declined, production started slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened as it declined. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants and coking enterprises reduced inventory, while coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports increased inventory. The overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Policy - wise, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires central enterprises to consciously resist "involution - style" competition. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated. On the supply side, the ferrosilicon production decline widened last week, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to relieve the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. In terms of steel demand, the hot metal production continued to decline month - on - month. The inventory contradiction of steel plates was somewhat relieved, but the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level. The hot metal will continue to reduce production, and the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the ferrosilicon demand in steelmaking will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the ferrosilicon spot price stopped falling and stabilized, stimulating some restocking demand, but downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high prices. The metal magnesium supply did not decrease, supporting the ferrosilicon demand. In terms of exports, overseas is approaching Christmas, and the export order transactions are okay, but the acceptance of high prices is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade from Russia and North Korea still has an impact. On the cost side, the semi - coking coal price decreased slightly, and the price in cost - advantageous areas was relatively competitive. Looking forward to the future, the ferrosilicon supply - demand contradiction still needs to be resolved, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. However, the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production cuts have already digested the price impact, and attention should be paid to the semi - coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, it is expected that the price will oscillate in a range, with the range referring to 6400 - 5650 [7]. - Ferromanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of ferromanganese futures oscillated. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas decreased slightly month - on - month. Production in cost - advantageous areas was relatively stable, and there was still an expectation of new capacity release in some areas in Inner Mongolia recently. The two major production areas maintained production cuts and maintenance. On the demand side, the hot metal production declined month - on - month. The high - inventory contradiction of hot - rolled coils still has room for production cuts, but it is relatively limited after calculation. The overall steelmaking demand will maintain a contraction trend, and steel mills have a strong tendency to suppress prices. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remained at a high level. The insufficient production cut strength led to a limited month - on - month decline in inventory, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was firm. Some foreign mines' quotes for January increased, and the electricity price remained stable. In the short term, manganese ore provided certain cost support. Overall, ferromanganese is in a state of oversupply in its own market but relatively balanced in the overall market. The manganese ore provides certain support for the ferromanganese price. The subsequent key lies in the production cut amplitude and the raw material restocking expectation of steel mills during the year - end winter storage. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been priced in, and there is no clear signal for a trend - like rebound. It is expected that the price will still run weakly in the future, but the trend - like decline is limited. Strategically, one can consider short - term operations, trying to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions remained stable or slightly decreased, while futures prices increased slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The cost of steel production in some regions increased slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in some regions improved, while the profit of rebar in some regions also improved [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production and the production of five major steel products decreased. The rebar production increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly. The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased, while the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types were basically stable or slightly decreased, and the basis of the 05 contract and the spreads between different contracts decreased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores at Rizhao Port and some price indexes were basically stable or slightly decreased [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume and global shipments of iron ore decreased, and the demand indicators such as hot metal production, port clearance volume, and national pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke prices showed a downward trend, with some contracts rising slightly. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with some varieties showing small fluctuations [6]. Supply - Coke production decreased, and coking coal production from sample mines decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coke, mainly from hot metal production, decreased. The demand for coking coal was affected by the decline in coke production [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with different trends among coking plants, ports, and steel mills. The coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with different trends in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Spot Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly. The spot prices of ferrosilicon were basically stable, and the spot prices of ferromanganese increased slightly in some regions [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit improved. The manganese ore price was firm, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased, and the ferromanganese production in the main areas decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking decreased due to the decline in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still relatively high [7].