不锈钢产业日报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to contract due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grades, tightening raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants, and a significant reduction in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year, which will put pressure on ferronickel production [2]. - Although stainless - steel mills' production profits have improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the decline in stainless - steel production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and stainless - steel exports are decreasing. Market purchasing willingness is low, but the national stainless - steel social inventory is seasonally decreasing slightly [2]. - Technically, stainless - steel futures show increased volume, reduced positions, and rising prices. The bearish sentiment has declined, breaking through the key resistance of MA60. It is expected that stainless - steel futures prices will adjust strongly, with support at MA5 and the upper target at 13,100 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,375 lots, a decrease of 8,491 lots; the main contract position is 100,771 lots, a decrease of 7,250 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 47,705 tons, a decrease of 607 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters [2]. - The monthly excavator production is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [2]. - Trump - "appointed" Fed governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a recession risk. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [2].