瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The V2605 contract rose 3.02% to close at 4,738 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased, with the profile开工率 in a downward trend. Social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level compared to the same period in history. The costs of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased, and profits improved. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and there are no new planned shutdown units, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. With a small number of unit commissioning delays in December, the industry's high - operation state generally continues, resulting in high supply pressure. The end - user real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - season, and the开工率 of hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue the seasonal downward trend. Global PVC supply is sufficient, and overseas market competition is fierce, so export support is limited. The weak current supply - demand situation of PVC competes with the "anti - involution" support on the expected side, and it is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. Technically, the V2605 contract should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the resistance around 4,800 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 147 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 1,874,446 lots, a week - on - week increase of 728,966 lots; the open interest was 964,843 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,287 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 957,177 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 27,840 lots; the short position was 1,022,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 23,664 lots; the net long position was - 65,311 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,176 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,367.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2,656.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2,449 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 77.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 389.8297 billion yuan, an increase of 31.191 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%. From December 13th to 19th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% week - on - week to 45.39%, among which the operating rate of pipes remained stable at 37.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 3.7% week - on - week to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons [3].