铂钯金期货日报-20251223

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The optimistic trading sentiment in the precious metals market continues to boost the platinum and palladium markets. The 2606 main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit the daily limit after the opening, with palladium falling back during the session. The continuous shortage of physical spot and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly amplified the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price. The prices of platinum and palladium show a parabolic upward trend, and the need for basis repair may increase the short - term correction risk [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 619.95 yuan/gram, up 56.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 532.55 yuan/gram, up 27.85 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 561.61 yuan/gram, up 28.04 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price increased by 6.00 yuan. The platinum main contract's basis was - 28.31 yuan/gram, down 28.31 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was - 97.55 yuan/gram, down 21.85 yuan [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 2. Supply and Demand - Supply: The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - Demand: The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.26, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 14.08, down 0.83 [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and the 20 - point "peace plan" is in the initial draft stage. Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of an economic recession. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.2% [2]. 5. Price Outlook - This week, the London platinum spot price is expected to face resistance at 2300 US dollars/ounce and support at 1800 US dollars/ounce; the London palladium spot price is expected to face resistance at 1900 US dollars/ounce and support at 1600 US dollars/ounce [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter (%) will be released; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be released [2]