热轧卷板产业链日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish but volatile outlook for the hot-rolled coil plate market, with a recommended focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2605 contract saw a rally followed by a pullback. Despite a decline in the terminal demand for plates, the strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support. Additionally, positive macro - policy expectations keep the hot - rolled coil futures price in an upward trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the position volume is 1,198,397 lots, up 9,846 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 24,516 lots, up 718 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 131,893 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coil plates in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou it's 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it's 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it's 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 39 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 155.0814 million tons, up 802,800 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil inventory is 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6.987 million tons, down 213,000 tons; the steel net export volume is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 3.5316 million units, up 172,900 units; the monthly automobile sales are 3.429 million units, up 106,900 units. The monthly air - conditioner output is 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly household washing - machine output is 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank has announced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information (single - amount below 10,000 yuan) within a specific period, applicable to credit cards, mortgages, and consumer loans. In November 2025, most categories of Chinese steel exports rebounded month - on - month, with a rotation in the export structure. The export of coated plates, which had led for months, declined 13.7% month - on - month to 1.753 million tons, while hot - rolled exports rebounded to the first place in monthly export volume [2]