菜籽系产业日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The short - term decline of rapeseed oil may slow down. The current supply of rapeseed oil is tight, but the long - term supply pressure increases, and the demand remains mainly for rigid needs [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 8,847 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2,349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 1 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 54 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main contract for rapeseed oil is 204,202 lots, up 4,135 lots; the open interest of the main contract for rapeseed meal is 620,191 lots, up 15,829 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 28,231 lots, up 478 lots; for rapeseed meal is - 49,792 lots, up 7,211 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,876, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 613.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5,479 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the oil - meal ratio is 3.75, down 0.04 [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,428.75 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7,533.28 yuan/ton, up 238.59 yuan [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 446 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 61 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,370 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 10,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 5,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0 tons, down 20 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 298,000 tons, down 24,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 179,100 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 240,000 tons, down 8,000 tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4,800 tons, down 4,200 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.99%, up 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.98%, up 0.33% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.68%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%, down 0.23% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.13%, down 0.39% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.94%, up 1.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.21% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On December 22 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, ending six consecutive trading days of decline. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 18.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 612.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - Indonesia has launched a road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to take about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. 3.9 Key Points of Attention - The operating rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region reported by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]