甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. The basis has strengthened slightly, and unloading is slow. Ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. November Iranian shipments were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult for imports to decline from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [2]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is high, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [6]. 2. Data Summary Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 801 | 2130 | 2095 | 2440 | 2485 | 2385 | 2550 | 249 | 318 | - 5 | 25 | - | | 2025/12/18 | 801 | 2168 | 2120 | 2440 | 2485 | 2385 | 2525 | 251 | 318 | 0 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/19 | 801 | 2157 | 2115 | 2435 | 2485 | 2385 | 2508 | 249 | 320 | 1 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/22 | 801 | 2142 | 2115 | 2430 | 2485 | 2385 | 2500 | 248 | 320 | 11 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/23 | 801 | 2137 | 2115 | 2420 | 2485 | 2355 | 2505 | - | - | - | 20 | - | |日度变化|0|-5|0|-10|0|-30|5|-|-|-|0|-| [2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 745 | 6400 | 6750 | 8250 | 6900 | 763 | 786 | 166 | 6479 | - 40 | 70 | 11332 | | 2025/12/18 | 745 | 6390 | 6725 | 8125 | 6850 | 763 | 786 | 144 | 6476 | - 40 | 67 | 11332 | | 2025/12/19 | 745 | 6230 | 6600 | 8100 | 6850 | 763 | 786 | 19 | 6320 | - 60 | 66 | 11332 | | 2025/12/22 | 745 | 6150 | 6575 | 8075 | 6850 | - | 786 | - | 6240 | - 50 | - | 11298 | | 2025/12/23 | - | - | 6525 | 7975 | 6850 | - | - | - | 6296 | - 50 | - | 11265 | |日度变化|-|-|-50|-100|0|-|-|-|56|0|-|-33| [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 6000 | 715 | 6150 | 6078 | 6020 | 6422 | 755 | 800 | 1 | 6254 | - 80 | 70 | 10730 | | 2025/12/18 | 5930 | 710 | 6210 | 6073 | 6020 | 6426 | 755 | 800 | 2 | 6279 | - 80 | 67 | 10534 | | 2025/12/19 | 5890 | 710 | 6150 | 6058 | 6020 | 6414 | 755 | 800 | 4 | 6213 | - 80 | 66 | 10934 | | 2025/12/22 | 5870 | 710 | 6085 | 6050 | 6000 | 6394 | 745 | 800 | 4 | 6119 | - 80 | - | 10892 | | 2025/12/23 | 5780 | 710 | 6070 | 6028 | 5980 | 6362 | - | - | - | 6158 | - 80 | - | 10772 | |日度变化|-90|0|-15|-22|-20|-32|-|-|-|39|0|-|-120| [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 2450 | 722 | 4460 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 267 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/18 | 2400 | 722 | 4470 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 264 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/19 | 2400 | 732 | 4460 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 264 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/22 | 2350 | 732 | 4400 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | - | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/23 | 2300 | 732 | 4480 | - | - | 4100 | - | - | - | - | - 20 | |日度变化|-50|0|80|-|-|0|-|-|-|-|0| [6]