有色早报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy-on-dip strategy with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December due to continued overseas liquidity easing [1]. - For aluminum, despite weak domestic demand, falling aluminum ingot inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are weak, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [5]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the policy side has a motivation to support prices, leading to intensified policy - fundamentals game [9]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by news of quota cuts from the Indonesian Nickel Association [11]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - For tin, in the short - term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still significant [18]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but demand shows signs of weakening. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 504, and the LME inventory increased by 825 [1]. - Market Outlook: The long - term TC for copper concentrate has little impact on the market. The domestic market is expected to see a small inventory build - up until the Spring Festival, with suppressed spreads and import profit windows. Overseas liquidity is loose, and the price is expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 60, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 7 [1]. - Market Outlook: In November, primary aluminum imports declined, and exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak. Although domestic demand is poor, falling inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 [3][4]. - Market Outlook: The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply - side TC is falling, and there are production cuts due to smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and varies overseas. The price may not fall deeply, and different arbitrage opportunities are recommended [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,700, and the LME inventory increased by 216 [9]. - Market Outlook: Pure nickel production decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising at home and abroad. The Indonesian Nickel Association's quota plan adds policy - fundamentals game [9]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 70 [11]. - Market Outlook: Steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. The Indonesian policy supports prices, leading to short - term price rebounds [11]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the lead price decreased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,850 [12][14]. - Market Outlook: Primary production may decrease due to maintenance, and secondary production has recovered. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan, and attention should be paid to low - warehouse - receipt risks [14]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the tin price rose rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 50 [17]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, there is a risk of over - supply, and the fundamentals are weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 185, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 156 [18]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, over - capacity is still high [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 17 - 23, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 240 [22]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, supply and demand are strong, but demand is weakening. The 12 - month de - stocking is expected to be 7,000 - 7,500 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22].