大越期货玻璃早报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with unimpressive production profit recovery and supply contraction falling short of expectations. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The short - term outlook is for glass to oscillate weakly [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have risen. It is expected that glass will oscillate weakly at a low level [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - size boards was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis was - 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.45% from the previous value [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content on cost - side data is summarized other than mentions of glass production profit sources (from Longzhong and Steel Union) [15][20]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 219, with an operating rate of 73.90%, at a historically low level during the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level during the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - Regarding downstream factors, the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level during the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.558 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.57% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Table - The float glass annual supply - demand balance table shows production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors include the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe region and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [4]. - Negative factors include weak real - estate terminal demand and low order numbers for glass deep - processing enterprises during the same period, as well as the cautious attitude of traders and processors due to poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry [5].