大越期货尿素早报-20251224

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Factors - The supply side has stable daily production and operating rate, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, but the Indian tender news in the middle of the week boosted the market [4]. Base Difference - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -41, and the premium - discount ratio is -2.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (-40,000 tons), showing a bearish sign [4]. Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. Group 5: Urea Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1,680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1,720 (-10), Henan spot is 1,680 (0), and FOB China is 2,744 [6]. Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1,721 (23), UR01 is 1,659 (10), and UR09 is 1,705 (23). The basis of the 05 contract is -41 (-33) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 10,532 (-349), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.18 million tons, and UR port inventory is 0.138 million tons [6]. Group 6: Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]