沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, oscillating near the previous top of the trading range. The change in Indonesian quotas may affect raw material supply. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose. The overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2602 will run near the previous top of the trading range, with a slightly stronger oscillation. For the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel has slightly increased. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the cost line is stable. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased. Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to run with a slightly stronger oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - Nickel: On December 23, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,440, up 2,180 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,640, up 380. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 125,250, up 3,450; the price of 1 Jinchuan Nickel was 128,750, up 3,625; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,250, up 3,425; the price of nickel beans was 124,300, up 3,425 [10]. - Stainless Steel: On December 23, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,905, up 55 from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,500, while in Foshan it was up 100 to 13,500 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - Nickel: As of December 23, LME nickel inventory was 254,604, an increase of 216; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 38,621, a decrease of 301. The total inventory was 293,225, a decrease of 85 [13]. - Stainless Steel: As of December 23, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 47,705, a decrease of 607. As of December 19, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons compared to the previous period [16][17]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - Nickel Ore: On December 23, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 55 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 8.5 dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 9.5 dollars per ton, also remaining unchanged [21]. - Nickel Iron: On December 23, the price of high - nickel iron (8 - 12) was 890 yuan per nickel point, up 3.5 from the previous day; the price of low - nickel iron (below 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [21]. 3.4 Production Cost - Stainless Steel: The traditional production cost was 12,658, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,021, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,647 [23]. 3.5 Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 124,930 yuan per ton [25].