大越期货沪铜早报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall situation is neutral. - The spot price is 93,540, with a basis of -490, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - On December 23, copper inventories increased by 825 to 158,575 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories increased by 6,416 tons from the previous week to 95,805 tons, which is neutral. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish. - The main net position is short, changing from long to short, which is bearish. - Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are expected to remain at a high level in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and marginal improvement in PMI but still in contraction range [2] - Basis: Spot price at 93,540, basis - 490, discount to futures [2] - Inventory: December 23 copper inventory increase of 825 to 158,575 tons, SHFE copper inventory increase of 6,416 tons from last week to 95,805 tons [2] - Disk: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average moving upward [2] - Main Position: Main net position short, changing from long to short [2] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances, new historical high in copper prices, short - term high - level operation [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but specific classification of bullish and bearish factors is not clearly elaborated [3] Spot - Information about spot includes place, mid - price, change, and inventory details such as type, total amount, and change, but specific numerical values are not filled in the provided table [6] 期现价差 - No specific content is provided in the report regarding the analysis of the futures - spot price difference [7] Exchange Inventory - No specific content is provided in the report regarding exchange inventory analysis [11] Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] Processing Fee - Processing fee has declined [15] CFTC - No specific content is provided in the report regarding CFTC analysis [17] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. A detailed Chinese annual supply - demand balance table for copper is provided, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]