大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251224

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected that the supply will be difficult to recover before the Spring Festival, and the demand is hard to increase due to limited profits of coking and steel enterprises, so the short - term price may be weak. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and there is still a risk of further price cuts in the later period, with the short - term price also expected to be weak [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Near the end of the year, safety accidents occur frequently, and coal mine production enthusiasm is low. Downstream coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, coal mine shipments are not smooth, and the overall transaction is average [2] - Basis: The spot market price is 1140, and the basis is 14.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2] - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3] - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing [3] - Expectation: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profit recovery of coking and steel enterprises is slow. The current purchase of high - priced coal is still cautious, and the demand for coking coal is difficult to increase, with the short - term price expected to be weak [2] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult - to - increase supply [5] - Negative Factors: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke - Fundamentals: After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of some coking enterprises has narrowed. The overall production capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises is at a high level, and production is stable. Affected by market sentiment, the shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [7] - Basis: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 111, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7] - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 tons, port inventory is 187 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week [7] - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7] - Main Position: The main net position of coke is long, and long positions are decreasing [7] - Expectation: Some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Considering the profit gap between coking and steel enterprises, the speculative demand of traders has not started yet. There is still a pessimistic attitude in the market, and there is still a risk of further price cuts for metallurgical coke [7] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9] - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9] Price Index and Inventory - Port Metallurgical Coke Price Index: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [10] - Imported Coking Coal Spot Price: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different types and brands of imported coking coal in various ports are given, and some prices have increased [11] - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28] Other Data - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [41] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [45]