大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are generally bearish in terms of fundamentals, with oversupply, weak downstream demand, and increasing inventories However, there is cost support, and the markets are expected to fluctuate today [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized The demand for agricultural films is weakening, and packaging film orders are declining after the peak season The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,230 (-20), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - Basis: The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -66, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.0%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is weak on the disk, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand It is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [5] - Bearish Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized As propane prices are strong, PDH profits continue to decline The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decrease in order volume, and the demand for pipes has also decreased The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,150 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - Basis: The basis of PP 2605 contract is -8, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.1%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is weak on the disk, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand It is expected to fluctuate today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support [7] - Bearish Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 6,230 (-20), and the 05 contract price is 6,296 (56) The basis is -66 (-76) The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (-33) [8] - PP: The spot delivery product price is 6,150 (0), and the 05 contract price is 6,158 (39) The basis is -8 (-39) The warehouse receipt is 10,772 (-120) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]