大越期货甲醇早报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that domestic methanol will continue its regional trend this week. Inland methanol plants may lower prices due to inventory pressure and transportation issues. The port market will see post - rise shock consolidation, and overall, methanol prices are expected to show a weak shock trend, with MA2605 operating between 2130 - 2190 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental drivers of methanol vary, with regional trends expected this week. Inland, plants focus on low - inventory operations, and some may cut prices. In sales areas, prices will have a narrow - range shock. Ports will see post - rise shock consolidation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The MA2605 contract is expected to operate between 2130 - 2190 yuan/ton. The basis is 9 yuan/ton with the spot at a premium. As of December 11, 2025, the port inventory decreased, the 20 - day line is downward with the price below it, and the main position is net short with short - position reduction [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely to Rise: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is down, port inventory is low, new acetic acid plants are put into production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - Likely to Fall: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated ship arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the off - season with MTBE production down, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some plants in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price: The prices of some spot and futures products have changed. For example, the price of Hebei methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price increased by 1 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: The basis is - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8]. - Inventory: As of December 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 102.01 million tons, a significant reduction of 9.84 million tons from the previous period [5]. - Opening Rate: The national weighted - average opening rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many plants in different regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and maintenance losses [59]. - Overseas Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and plants in other countries also have different operating statuses [60]. - Olefin Plants: Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases [61].