大越期货油脂早报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather. The current situation has both positive and negative factors, with positive factors including the tight supply of US soybeans with a low inventory-to-sales ratio, and negative factors such as the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous accumulation of domestic oil inventories, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease as it enters the减产 season [2] - Basis: The basis is 412, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is a negative factor [2] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is a positive factor [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [3] - Basis: The basis is 6, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is a positive factor [3] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a positive factor [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [4] - Basis: The basis is 596, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is a negative factor [4] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a negative factor [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5]