大越期货白糖早报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a global sugar supply surplus, with different institutions' forecasts ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. After continuous decline, the sugar main contract 05 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, and the market shows a volatile rebound due to some short - position profit - taking [4][5][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a larger supply - demand surplus in the new season, lower international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus vary. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons. Overall, it is bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, with a basis of 215 for the 05 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net position changing from long to short, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO predicts 1.63 million tons, Datagro predicts 1 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts 7.4 million tons [4][9][33] - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales: As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4] - Import Data: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9] - Price Data: The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content