广发期货日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable basis. Steel production and inventory reduction continued, but the inventory structure was still differentiated. The reduction in production supported steel prices, but weak demand limited upward momentum. Steel prices were expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range. Hold 1 - 5 positive spreads for rebar, exit 5 - month coil - rebar spreads on dips, and consider long - position in the rebar - iron ore ratio on dips [1] Iron Ore Industry - In the short term, it was difficult to form a trend - based decline in iron ore supply - demand contradictions, and high inventory suppressed the price upside. With an increase in steel mill restarts, iron ore prices were expected to rebound slightly. It was recommended to trade the 05 contract within the 760 - 810 range [4][5] Coke Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the third round of spot price cuts was implemented, with expectations of further cuts. Supply decreased due to pressure on coking profits, and demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation for coke weakened. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected rebound was unlikely to last. It was recommended to take profit on long positions in the J2605 contract [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures continued to rebound, and spot auction prices showed mixed trends. Supply from mines improved slightly, but production might continue to decline at the end of the year. Imported coal inventory was increasing. Demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance and coking profits declined. Overall inventory increased slightly. It was recommended to go long on the JM2605 contract on dips [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated, with increased hedging by manufacturers driving up spot prices. Supply decreased slightly, but demand from the steel - making industry continued to contract. Inventory remained high, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. Prices were expected to fluctuate within the 5400 - 5650 range, and it was recommended to short on price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [7] - Ferromanganese futures oscillated, with the market in a relatively balanced state. Manganese ore provided some support for prices. The key factors were the reduction in production and the expected restocking by steel mills at the end of the year. Prices were expected to remain weak, but the downward space was limited [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed various changes, with some prices increasing, some remaining stable, and some decreasing [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and plate billet prices remained stable. Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and in different regions also had different changes [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 1.1% to 226.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.0% to 798.0 tons. Rebar production increased by 1.6% to 181.7 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.4% to 291.9 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8% to 1294.8 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 5.6% to 452.5 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% to 390.7 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 18.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, while that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased by about 0.5%, and the 05 - contract basis of different powders also decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased by 0.5%, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased slightly [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.8% to 2646.7 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 3.6% to 3464.5 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% to 11054.0 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 1.8% to 313.5 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.8% to 15512.63 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 8724.0 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes, with the 01 and 05 contracts decreasing slightly. The coking profit increased slightly on a weekly basis [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts also had different changes, with the 01 contract increasing by 2.7% and the 05 contract increasing by 1.0%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1.5% on a weekly basis [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Demand - The pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.4% to 900.5 tons, with different changes in the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports [6] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 0.4 to - 0.2 tons, an increase of 88.1% [6] Coking Coal Industry Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with the Shanxi coking coal price remaining stable and the Mongolian coking coal price decreasing slightly [6] Overseas Coal Prices - Overseas coal prices showed various changes, with the FOB price of the same ship remaining unchanged and the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increasing by 1.3% [6] Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.1% to 438.2 tons [6] Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory showed various changes, with the clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increasing by 5.2%, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports showing different trends [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased slightly, with price increases of 0.4% - 0.6% [7] Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes, and the production profits also had different trends [7] Manganese Ore Supply - Manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 25.0% to 80.1 tons, arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 74.8 tons, and desilting volume decreased by 8.6% to 59.2 tons [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 0.7% to 448.3 tons [7] Production - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.1% to 10.0 tons, and the production rate decreased by 6.6% to 30.3%. Ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.5% to 188 tons, and the production rate decreased by 3.4% to 35.6% [7] Demand - Ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.5% to 18.8 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.3% to 112 tons. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the blast furnace operation rate decreased by 0.24% [7] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 16.3% to 65.7 tons, and the inventory - available days decreased by 2.5% to 15.4 days. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.74% to 38.5 tons, and the inventory - available days remained stable [7]