大越期货沥青期货早报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 all being low or decreasing [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - The basis on December 23 shows that the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the 02 - contract basis is - 57 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory is decreasing significantly [8]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the 02 - contract futures price closes above MA20 [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [8]. - It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the range of 2948 - 3006 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: The total planned asphalt production in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly production and shipment of sample enterprises have decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices has increased, reducing the supply pressure [7]. - Demand - side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level, with various types of asphalt开工率 mostly decreasing or remaining low [7]. - Cost - side: The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, providing short - term support [8]. - Basis: The spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is decreasing significantly, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 02 - contract futures price closes above MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: The refineries have reduced production, the demand is affected by the off - season, the inventory is stable, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the range of 2948 - 3006 [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract Spread: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the price differences between different contracts [22] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can be used to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [28] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships among them [32] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [37] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between different production processes [40] - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the supply situation [44] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the supply of raw materials [46] - Production Volume: The weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall supply situation [49] - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The price trends of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53] - Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the supply from refineries [57] - 开工率: The weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the production activity level [60] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the impact of maintenance on supply [62] - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [65] - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [69] - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented, which can be used to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [72] - Import and Export Situation: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [75] - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt production process [81] - Apparent Consumption: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall market demand [84] - Downstream Demand: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the downstream demand for asphalt [87] - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [91] - Asphalt开工率: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, construction asphalt开工率, modified asphalt开工率, and other types of asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the production activity level of different types of asphalt [96] - Downstream开工情况: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt开工率, road modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率, etc. from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the开工情况 of downstream industries [101] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from September 2024 to December 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand situation [106]