大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with the production in the last week of 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase, and is higher than the historical average. The predicted production in December 2025 is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The predicted import volume is 27,000 tons, a 22.42% month - on - month increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 116,240 - 120,640. [9] - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply and Demand Analysis: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and it is predicted that both production and import volume will increase next month. The inventory of downstream sample enterprises decreased. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost and Profit: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cash production cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [10] - Market Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline. [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Price Changes: The prices of upstream products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and lithium salts generally increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased. The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries were relatively stable. [16] - Supply - Side Data: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed different trends. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the production and import volume of lithium hydroxide all had corresponding changes. [20] - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production, export, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary materials, as well as the monthly power battery loading volume and new energy vehicle production and sales volume, all showed different trends. [20]