大越期货菜粕早报-20251224

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2340 and 2400. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it will be affected by soybean meal and maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market situation is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, spot demand off - season, and low inventory [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has a preliminary ruling, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 15 - 23, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3102 - 3138 yuan, with daily trading volumes between 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan, with most daily trading volumes at 0 million tons. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was between 2490 - 2520 yuan from December 15 - 23. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, unchanged from last week and 99.29% less than the same period last year. The rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot price followed the fluctuations, with the spot premium remaining relatively high. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [13][15][18]. 5. Position Data - The main force has changed from long to short, and funds have flowed in [9].