建信期货生猪日报-20251224

Group 1: Report Overview - Report on the daily situation of the pig industry dated December 24, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the 23rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward, closing with a positive line. The highest was 11,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,251 lots to 344,624 lots [7] - On the 23rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.50 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Supply - Side Analysis - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The proportion of second - fattening and hog retention was high in October, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8] - According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%, and the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [8] Demand - Side Analysis - Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December [8] - With the continuous drop in temperature, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased successively, and the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On December 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,400 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 4,500 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 21,000 heads month - on - month [8] Policy - Side Analysis - China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [8] Overall Market Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing. After the Winter Solstice stocking, demand has weakened, and the spot market is expected to fluctuate [8] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and hog retention in October, combined with the continuous release of production capacity, form double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent epidemic situation in the north is more severe year - on - year, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13] - As of December 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 119.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 238.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising is 12.09 yuan/kg, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter is 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13] - As of the week of December 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, an increase of 0.55 kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, an increase of 1.37 kg from last month, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a decrease of 0.50 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [13]