建信期货工业硅日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The spot price declined slightly. The market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern due to the lack of improvement in fundamentals [4]. - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the output has limited room for further decline, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction of polysilicon has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, up 1.68%, with a trading volume of 351,425 lots and an open interest of 213,776 lots, a net decrease of 7,830 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 823 lots, and short positions had a net decrease of 611 lots [4]. - The spot price decreased slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 price was 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9450 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the production decline is limited, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production reduction has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - The current industrial inventory is 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%. The futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price weakened and the discount led to insufficient return momentum. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price is generally stable, and the market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 23, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 9,175 lots, an increase of 156 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25% [5]. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC price ranging from 13,500 to 14,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to rise steadily in the short term [5]. - The polysilicon spot price was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising their prices. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the inventory was slowly increasing. The spot transaction price is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].