建信期货豆粕日报-20251224

Group 1: General Information - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3053, the highest price was 3057, the lowest price was 3041, the closing price was 3047, with no change (0.00% change), the trading volume was 94,913, the open interest was 181,527, and the open interest decreased by 60,292 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3016, the opening price was 3029, the highest price was 3031, the lowest price was 2997, the closing price was 3006, down 10 (-0.33% change), the trading volume was 136,340, the open interest was 633,980, and the open interest increased by 3,895 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2740, the opening price was 2741, the highest price was 2749, the lowest price was 2736, the closing price was 2745, up 5 (0.18% change), the trading volume was 568,687, the open interest was 2,151,398, and the open interest increased by 17,263 [6] External Market - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. Last week, there was insufficient driving force on the external market, and the December monthly supply - demand report was mediocre. The market has recently focused on the US soybean export end and the performance of new crops in South America [6] - In terms of exports, China is still in the process of purchasing US soybeans in an orderly manner. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans. However, currently, other countries are purchasing fewer US soybeans and more from Brazil, resulting in the current US soybean export sales volume being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - Regarding new crops in South America, the overall situation is bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growth period, with good rainfall overall. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the middle and late sowing stage and has not entered the critical weather - growth stage, and the rainfall is expected to improve in the next two weeks [6] Domestic Market - The increase in the auction frequency makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply in the future, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall insufficient bullish factors. In the short term, domestic futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and have a certain demand for a supplementary decline. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's adjustment of production in January, but there is no driving force at the current time [6] Group 3: Industry News USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending December 4, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 1.5525 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the current market year was 1.5521 million tons, a 40% increase from the previous week and a 34% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market had expected a net increase of 0.8 - 2 million tons. Among them, the net increase in export sales to the Chinese mainland was 1.011 million tons [7] - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the next market year was 40,000 tons, and the market had expected a net increase of 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 1.0711 million tons, a 33% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, the shipments to the Chinese mainland were 71,000 tons. The new sales of US soybeans for the current market year were 1.6726 million tons, and the new sales for the next market year were 40,000 tons [7][8] AgRural Forecast - AgRural predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 180.4 million tons, higher than the 178.5 million tons previously estimated in November. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with a production of 171.5 million tons in the previous season [8]