建信期货铁矿石日评-20251224

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore are under pressure, with supply expected to increase and demand remaining weak. However, due to recent rumors in the coking coal and coke markets and news related to steel exports, the sentiment in the black metal sector has been boosted, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. Nevertheless, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. After the rebound, prices may weaken again [11] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On December 23, the main iron ore futures contract 2605 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating downward. It oscillated in the afternoon and recovered slightly at the end of the session, closing at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7] - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: On December 23, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract increased [9] - Future Outlook: - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly by 140.7 million tons to 2748.6 million tons, but remained at a relatively high level. According to historical patterns, as the end of the year approaches, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase [10] - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products decreased again, reaching a new low since September 2024. Among them, the output of hot - rolled coils declined the most, possibly related to the production profit of each variety. The average daily pig iron output has declined for 5 consecutive weeks and has now fallen to a relatively low level of about 2.26 million tons, indicating weak iron ore demand [10][11] - Inventory: Currently, steel mills are replenishing inventory on an as - needed basis. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 21 days compared to last week, but the absolute inventory of steel mills is still decreasing. As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, steel mills may have a small - scale replenishment, but the increase will be limited. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 157 million tons, a new high since mid - March 2022, and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11] 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft, emphasizing the need to plan a number of major projects, carriers, and projects to drive the overall situation, accumulate new momentum for future development, and support current domestic demand expansion and economic stability [12] - From December 22 to 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on controlling new supplies, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies according to local conditions, revitalizing and utilizing existing land through urban renewal and village - in - city renovation, and promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, spreads, shipments, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption data, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [14][22][32]