建信期货集运指数日报-20251224

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded slightly by 5.2% to 1589.2 this week, with good price increases in mid - and late December. There is still an expectation of price increases in late January, and the February contract may have some upside potential. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index rose 5.2% to 1589.2 this week. Most shipping companies announced price increases in January, but the actual implementation was weaker than the announced levels. The market may have an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and there is still an expectation of price increases in late January. The February contract may have upside potential, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8] 3.2 Industry News - Overall Market: From December 15th to 19th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates on some long - haul routes rising, driving the composite index up. China's exports in November increased by 5.9% year - on - year in US dollars, and the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars in the first 11 months [9] - European Routes: Eurozone business activity growth slowed in December, with the composite PMI falling to 51.9. Freight demand was stable this week, and market freight rates declined slightly, with the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate at $1533/TEU on December 19th, down 0.3% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The supply - demand fundamentals were slightly better than those of European routes, and the spot market booking price continued to rise, reaching $2833/TEU on December 19th, up 3.5% from the previous period [9][10] - North American Routes: The US labor market showed signs of further slowdown in November. Freight demand was stable this week, and the spot market booking price continued to rise, with the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates at $1992/FEU and $2846/FEU respectively on December 19th, up 11.9% and 7.3% from the previous period [10] - Shipping Company News: Many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases on multiple international routes in December. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced increases in peak - season surcharges, and CMA CGM will levy a peak - season surcharge of $250 per TEU on Asian - Nordic routes from December 29th and adjust the FAK rate on January 1st [10] - Geopolitical News: The Israeli military killed several Hamas members in the Rafah area, and armed militants in the Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership. Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "clarified" [10] 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index rose from 1510.56 to 1589.2, a increase of 5.2%, and the US West route index rose from 924.36 to 962.1, a increase of 4.1% from December 15th to 22nd [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures: The trading data of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on December 23rd are presented, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the EC2606 contract rose 26.1 points, a 2.00% increase [6]