瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251224

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - EB2602 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 6,598 yuan/ton. The new 200,000 - ton device of Dongming started production last week, and the 600,000 - ton device of Lianyungang Petrochemical and the 70,000 - ton device of Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted. The impact of the maintenance of the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai expanded, and the production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. The downstream operating rate mainly decreased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased month - on - month. The dominant inventory generally maintained a destocking trend. The loss of non - integrated processes deepened, while the profit of integrated processes expanded. The restart of the 620,000 - ton device of Zhenhai Liande was postponed to the second quarter, and the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai restarted this week, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise. The integrated device has good profitability, and the number of newly added maintenance devices is limited. Due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the downstream EPS maintains a low operating rate. Some PS and ABS devices have recovered, but overall, demand is difficult to increase significantly. As the domestic styrene supply - demand turns to a relatively loose balance, the destocking rhythm of the dominant inventory is expected to slow down. In terms of cost, affected by the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the recent international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,380 and the pressure around 6,690 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 338,468 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15,351 lots; the closing price of the active contract was 6,598 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton; the closing price of the January contract was 6,535 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 8,648 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 14,105 lots; the short position was 377,484 lots, and the warrant quantity was 1,700 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,682 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 809.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 819.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6,550 yuan/ton, 6,725 yuan/ton, and 6,580 yuan/ton respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 746 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 726 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662.5 US dollars/ton, and the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 661.17 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 279 US dollars/ton, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 739 US dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,325 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The national inventory was 170,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,550 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,600 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 84,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.81% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.96%), 70.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%), 54.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%), 36%, and 79.23% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 346,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.38%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS was 261,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%. As of December 18th, the inventory of styrene plants was 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. As of December 22nd, the inventory in the East China port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%; the inventory in the South China port was 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.67%. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2]