Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 15,800 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,750 in the short - term. Tire enterprises are in the seasonal off - season, with weak capacity utilization, slow shipment rhythm, and rising finished - product inventory. Some enterprises have production control and stop - limit production phenomena due to production and sales pressure [2]. 3. Section Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 360 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,615 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - numbered rubber is 210 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 167,630 lots, with an increase of 21,101 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 51,674 lots, with a decrease of 1,655 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,521 lots, with an increase of 1,478 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 11,718 lots, with an increase of 1,742 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 91,330 tons, with an increase of 2,600 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,845 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,952 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 104 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 1,905 yuan/ton, with an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes is 55.29 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.46 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.7 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 51.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, with a decrease of 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.91 days, with an increase of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.48 days, with an increase of 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, with an increase of 2.44 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, with an increase of 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.54%, with a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.56%, with a decrease of 1.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251224
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-24 09:09