瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2605 contract rose 1.55% to close at 4,781 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The national average cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was repaired. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased, and the social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period of history. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. In December, a small number of unit commissioning was postponed, the high - start state of the industry was generally maintained, and the supply pressure was high. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the off - season, and the start - up rate of hard products such as pipes and profiles may maintain a seasonal downward trend. The global PVC supply is sufficient, the overseas market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The short - term is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, V2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the pressure around 4,860 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,781 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the trading volume was 1,135,087 lots, down 739,359 lots; the open interest was 973,277 lots, up 8,434 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 939,477 lots, down 17,700 lots; the short position was 1,010,119 lots, down 12,369 lots; the net long position was - 70,642 lots, down 5,331 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,445.77 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,467.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,615 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,425 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, down 1.07%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.74%, down 1.92%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, down 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 51.06 tons, down 0.68 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 tons, down 0.42 tons, and in the South China region was 4.23 tons, down 0.26 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 53,456.7 million square meters, up 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, up 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 21.59%, up 3.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.67%, up 2.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.64%, up 1.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.63%, up 1.41% [2] Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% to 45.39%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 37.6%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons compared with last week [2]