白糖产业日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with an expectation of a global sugar market supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.21 cents or 1.40%, settling at 15.20 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the number of sugar - cane crushing mills is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. Although the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the import progress slowed down significantly, the short - term sugar price mainly follows the upward trend of the external market price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 107 yuan; the main contract position was 466,130 lots, a decrease of 42,820 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 5038, an increase of 559; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 71,579 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 1102, a decrease of 79. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4103 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4151 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5240 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it was 5340 yuan/ton, a rise of 70 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it was 5400 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of sugar in Guangxi was 237.4 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1124 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1076 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 28 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 14 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume was 434 million tons, an increase of 44 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 15.03%, a rise of 6.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 15.04%, a rise of 6.35%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.07%, a rise of 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.08%, a rise of 0.12% [2]. Industry News - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of about 581,000 tons, 13,000 tons less than last year. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season, 1 less than the previous season. The remaining 2 non - crushing mills will finish starting up on December 25th and December 26th [2].