沪铜产业日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate spot processing fee index operates in the negative range and declines slightly, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The supply of refined copper increases slightly due to the recovery of smelter operating rates, but is limited by raw material shortages. High copper prices make downstream purchasing more cautious, but the consumption side remains resilient, leading to a slight reduction in Shanghai copper social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column expands. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish and fluctuating manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 96,100 yuan/ton, up 2,170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,193 dollars/ton, up 132.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 130 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 258,277 lots, up 17,184 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 28,086 lots, down 1,167 lots. The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 95,805 tons, up 6,416 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,875 tons, down 2,875 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 52,222 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 93,470 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 94,970 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 53 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,410 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 13.16 dollars/ton, up 6.58 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.65 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.57 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 85,940 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,790 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 77,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 482.434 billion yuan, up 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.36%, up 1.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.5%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 20.4%, down 0.0061; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.21, down 0.0228 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing focusing on main responsibilities and core businesses, optimizing the layout of the state - owned economy, enhancing core functions and competitiveness, strengthening research on key core technologies, and deepening reforms. The US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 92.9 last month to 89.1, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%. Consumer spending was the biggest driver of growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.9% in the third quarter. In addition, the orders and shipments of core capital goods in the US rebounded in October [2]