瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to decline significantly. The export window may close again due to the rebound of the Shanghai-London ratio [3]. - The downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. - The zinc price is expected to have a strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support level of 23,000 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level of 23,400 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 23,230 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc price is 3,096.5 dollars/ton, up 18.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 201,880 lots, up 3,161 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,793 lots, up 514 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 76,017 tons, down 4,560 tons; the LME inventory is 98,975 tons, down 275 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 23,350 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 29.14 dollars/ton, up 4.29 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,010 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 1.192 million tons, up 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 13.16%, down 3.2% [3]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 11.65%, down 0.2% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [3]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.9%. The October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [3]. - Trump proposed conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates, and some people suggested adjusting the inflation target [3].