农产品早报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 25, 2025, and is from the agricultural products team of the research center [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 3. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot market shows a differentiated trend with port prices falling and产区 prices rising. The supply pressure may shift later due to middle - men hoarding. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and hoarded grains are released, prices may fall [3] - Starch: In the short - term, supported by seasonal consumption, prices are expected to be stable. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - Sugar: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - Cotton: With low initial inventory offsetting most of the output increase, future demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, making it suitable for long - term investment [6] - Eggs: The存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The speed of存栏 decline depends on the chicken culling rate. Accelerated culling will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [8] - Apples: The trading atmosphere in the产区 is light, and the sales in the sales area are slow. The market may show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15] - Pigs: After the end of winter solstice stocking and southern curing, the slaughter pressure increases. There may be short - term supply - demand mismatches before the Spring Festival, and the long - term market improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [15] 4. Data Summary Corn/Starch | Product | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2160 | 2160 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2240 | 2230 | - 10 | | | Weifang | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | | | Shekou | 2410 | 2390 | - 20 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | [2] Sugar | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 5390 | 5420 | 30 | | Nanning | 5270 | 5340 | 70 | | Kunming | 5220 | 5240 | 20 | [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn | Product | Index | Value on 2025/12/18 | Value on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 3128 | 14750 | 14910 | 160 | | | Imported M - grade US cotton | 72.9 | | | | | CotlookA(FE) | 73.3 | | | | | Import profit | 2022 | | | | | Warehouse receipts + Forecast | 7568 | 8192 | 624 | | Cotton Yarn | Vietnamese yarn spot | 2.53 | 2.53 | 0 | | | Vietnamese yarn import profit | 542 | 893 | 351 | | | 32S spinning profit | - 492 | - 345 | 147 | [6] Eggs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 3.02 | 2.89 | - 0.13 | | Liaoning | 2.96 | 2.82 | - 0.14 | | Shandong | 3.05 | 2.80 | - 0.25 | | Henan | 3.00 | 2.80 | - 0.20 | | Hubei | 3.16 | 3.18 | 0.02 | [8] Apples | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 first and second - grade | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | | Shaanxi 70 general | 4 | 4 | 0 | [14] Pigs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 11.83 | 11.73 | - 0.1 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 11.70 | 11.60 | - 0.1 | | Shandong Linyi | 11.77 | 11.92 | 0.15 | | Anhui Hefei | 12.45 | 12.15 | - 0.3 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 12.40 | 12.20 | - 0.2 | [15]