LPG早报-20251225
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-25 01:08

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG futures price has rebounded. The Middle East resources are tight, the premium is still rising, and the winter price is hard to fall. The official January CP price is approaching. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Data - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4377 (-11), in Shandong was 4370 (+0), and in South China was 4475 (-5). The price of etherified C4 was 4580 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 135 [4] - The daily changes were: basis (+51), 01 - 02 spread 147 (-7), 03 - 04 spread -194 (-1). As of 21:00, FEI was 526 (+5) and CP was 506 (+0) dollars/ton [4] - The PG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (-187), the 01 - 02 spread was 119 (+35), and the 03 - 04 spread was -206 (+33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (-108) [4] - The domestic civil LPG market was differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was in Shandong at 4380 (-50); in East China at 4398 (-21), and in South China at 4500 (+80) [4] Market Relationship Data - The FEI monthly spread strengthened, the CP monthly spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal and external relationships strengthened. PG - CP reached 99.6 (+28); PG - FEI reached 85.6 (+20); FEI - MB reached 170 (+6), and FEI - CP reached 14 (+8) [4] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 83 (-7). The FOB premiums of propane in the Middle East and the US were 13 (-24.25), 51 (+9), and 43 dollars (-4) respectively. FEI - MOPJ was -19.25 [4] Profit and Inventory Data - The spot profit of PDH was weak, and the futures profit rebounded. The arrivals decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by -7.89%. The commercial volume of refineries increased by +0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by -0.03% [4] - The PDH operating rate was 75% (+2.13 pct) [4]