燃料油早报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. In Europe, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The low - sulfur crack spread in Europe fluctuated at a low level [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory increased slightly [5][8]. - This week, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported, but the short - term upside space is limited [8]. - The global residual fuel oil market has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external crack spread depends on crude oil price fluctuations and feedstock premium levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it is still expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force for now [8]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 327.47 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 332.36 | - 0.70 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 369.76 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.92 | - 1.46 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.26 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.50 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 593.29 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 607.21 | - 0.25 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 223.53 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 227.29 | - 1.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.13 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | 1.21 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | 42.29 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.56 | - 0.76 |[3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 341.67 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 344.78 | - 2.29 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 352.34 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | - 0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 407.95 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 418.09 | 0.96 | | Singapore GO M1 | 79.76 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 80.63 | 0.92 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.01 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.53 | - 0.65 | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | - 182.27 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 178.57 | - 5.85 |[3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 339.30 | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - 0.50 | | FOB VLSFO | 407.57 | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | 0.57 | | 380 Basis | - 3.00 | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | 0.25 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 3.3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 1.5 |[4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2403 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | - 18 | | FU 05 | 2464 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2 | | FU 09 | 2431 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 61 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 20 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | - 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 23 |[4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2901 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 24 | | LU 05 | 2936 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 19 | | LU 09 | 2977 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 13 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 35 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 41 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | 76 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 11 |[5]