有色套利早报-20251225

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 25, 2025, which can help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot domestic price is 94,660, LME price is 12,243, and the ratio is 7.62; March domestic price is 96,230, LME price is 12,224, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.98, with a loss of 2,003.83, and a profit of 1,716.73 for spot export [1]. - Zinc: Spot domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,097, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,126, and the ratio is 5.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a loss of 2,720.57 [1]. - Aluminum: Spot domestic price is 22,030, LME price is 2,933, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 22,385, LME price is 2,968, and the ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.35, with a loss of 2,479.20 [1]. - Nickel: Spot domestic price is 129,900, LME price is 15,697, and the ratio is 8.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.06, with a profit of 45.32 [1]. - Lead: Spot domestic price is 17,025, LME price is 1,960, and the ratio is 8.69; March domestic price is 17,200, LME price is 1,998, and the ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.63, with a profit of 106.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,360, 2,490, 2,530, and 2,560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 571, 1,039, 1,517, and 1,995 respectively [4]. - Zinc: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 165, 205, 235, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - Aluminum: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 200, 255, 275, and 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 344, 467, and 590 respectively [4]. - Lead: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 220, 245, and 255 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, and 528 respectively [4]. - Nickel: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 4,960, 5,210, 5,370, and 5,720 respectively [4]. - Tin: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,660, and the theoretical spread is 7,006 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 920 and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 302 and 1,169 respectively [4]. - Zinc: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 205 and - 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 154 and 290 respectively [4][5]. - Lead: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 45 and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 259 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.14, 4.30, 5.59, 0.96, 1.30, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.94, 4.11, 6.10, 0.96, 1.48, and 0.65 respectively [5].