《农产品》日报-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - Prices: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - Spreads: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - Futures: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - Prices: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - Spreads: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - Prices: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - Spreads: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - Prices: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - Futures: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - Spot: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - Futures: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - Prices: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - Spreads: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - Prices: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].