《有色》日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper price is mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium leads to the continuous siphoning of non - US copper resources by the US, intensifying the supply shortage in non - US regions. The Fed's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion boost market risk appetite and support copper prices. - The long - term TC in 2026 is $0/ dry ton. As long as the by - product profit can be higher than the smelting cost, the cash - flow profit of smelters can be maintained. The key to the tightness in the smelting end transferred from the tightness in the mine end lies in the price trend of by - products such as sulfuric acid. - SMM expects that China's electrolytic copper production may continue to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High copper prices suppress terminal demand, resulting in a large discount in the spot market this week, an increase in social inventory, and a weakening of downstream operating rates and order releases. - In the future, the upward drivers are the further deterioration of the overseas inventory structure and the further improvement of interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is the negative feedback from weakening demand, but the downside space is limited in non - recession scenarios. In the long run, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to rise [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level shock yesterday. The fundamental pattern of oversupply in the spot market has not improved. The root cause is the structural surplus between stable supply growth and peak demand, which has triggered a comprehensive negative feedback cycle from inventory to cost. The supply is rigid, and the weekly output increased by 0.5 million tons to 1.689 million tons, leading to a weekly increase in the entire industrial chain inventory to a new high. After the price breaks through the industry's cash - cost line, enterprises pressure the price of upstream bauxite, and the cost - support level moves down dynamically. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2450 - 2650 yuan/ton for the main contract. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level shock yesterday. The spot discount widened to - 170 yuan/ton, indicating poor market acceptance at high prices and sluggish spot trading. Macroscopically, the overseas easing expectation is strengthened, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The employment data from October to November shows a significant cooling of the labor market, consolidating the logic of interest - rate cuts, and the weakening US dollar is beneficial to aluminum prices. Domestically, policies remain positive. On the supply side, the new production capacities in China and Indonesia are steadily released, and the operating output increases slightly; on the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, the operating rates of downstream aluminum - processing sectors generally decline, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases to 76.3%, reflecting weakening terminal consumption. The inventory structure is differentiated, and the on - the - way inventory in Xinjiang has increased due to improved transportation. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with a reference operating range of 21800 - 22600 yuan/ton for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast - aluminum - alloy market maintained a slightly stronger shock yesterday. The core contradiction in the current market is the game between strong cost support and the reality of weakening marginal demand. On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum, especially primary aluminum, is continuously and comprehensively tight, and holders generally hold back supplies and support prices, causing recycled - aluminum plants to face high procurement costs. In addition, the stricter implementation of reverse invoicing in some regions recently is expected to increase the cost by about 100 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have raised prices urgently. On the demand side, high aluminum prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand and wait and see cautiously. Although there is a phased impulse demand at the end of the year, the overall slowdown is obvious. The social inventory has decreased slightly for several consecutive weeks to 5.34 million tons, indicating a tight - balance state in the market. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with a reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton for the main contract [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are fluctuating. Domestic zinc - concentrate production has entered the production - reduction season, and the domestic zinc - mine output decreased month - on - month in November. As the risk of short - squeezing overseas eases and the Shanghai - London ratio is repaired, the window for zinc - mine imports is opened, and the TC shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing. On the smelting side, due to profit pressure, more enterprises are actively reducing production and controlling output, and the increase in refined - zinc output is limited. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream processing industries are basically stable. After the center of zinc prices moves down, enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, the domestic spot zinc ingots maintain a premium, and the social inventory continues to decline. In terms of inventory, the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 structure has changed to a discount, easing the short - squeezing risk. Macroscopically, the inflation and employment data in the US in November improve the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which supports zinc prices, and the main contract should focus on the support level of 22850 - 22950 [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the resumption of tin - mine production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the import volume has steadily recovered in November. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in supply. On the demand side, tin - solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience. Against the background of the traditional peak season, some downstream electronic - consumption and new - energy - related orders support the operating rate, making the overall trading atmosphere in this region better than that in East China, especially in the sub - fields related to new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic solder strips, where the demand remains stable. In East China, the operating rates of tin - solder enterprises are more obviously suppressed as they are more oriented towards traditional consumer electronics and white - goods fields. Recently, there are signs of improvement in the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia, and previous long positions should be gradually closed for profit. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures fluctuated widely yesterday, showing a relatively strong trend during the day and a slight decline at night. Recently, the market has mainly traded around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply. The increase in domestic nickel prices has widened, but the spot trading of refined nickel remains cold. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel resources has risen, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high premiums. In terms of nickel ore, the FOB price of 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in northern Philippines was settled at $40, and the shipping efficiency is acceptable; the domestic - trade benchmark price in Indonesia in December (Phase II) is expected to fall by $0.11 - 0.18/ wet ton, with a mainstream domestic - trade premium of + 25. The domestic - trade price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline. In terms of nickel iron, the support from the ore end is increasing, and the pressure on prices from steel mills has eased due to improved profits, and the recent transaction price has risen slightly. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious about raw - material procurement, with weak terminal demand. At the end of the year, the production schedule of downstream ternary materials has declined slightly, and the medium - term new production capacity will also have a restrictive effect, and the price of nickel sulfate has fallen slightly. Overseas inventory is accumulating at a high level but at a slower pace, while the pressure on domestic social inventory is increasing. Overall, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel ore has boosted recent sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be observed. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamental looseness restricts the upside space of prices. The futures are expected to continue to fluctuate and repair in the short term, but the upside space after the rapid breakthrough of the support level remains to be observed. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the digestion of news impacts, with a reference range of 123000 - 130000 for the main contract [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures maintained a relatively strong shock yesterday, with a slight decline at night. The price - increase atmosphere in the现货 market has become stronger, steel - mill agents led the price increase, and some traders and downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices, resulting in an overall increase in trading volume. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected this year, and the domestic central bank injected liquidity, and the policy window has shown a certain attitude in stabilizing growth and promoting consumption. In the nickel - ore market, the news from Indonesia has been fluctuating, strengthening the market's expectation of tightened ore supply. The FOB price of 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in northern Philippines was settled at $40; the domestic - trade benchmark price in Indonesia in December (Phase II) is expected to fall by $0.11 - 0.18/ wet ton, with a mainstream domestic - trade premium of + 25. The bargaining range for nickel iron has been raised, and the profit losses of iron plants have been somewhat repaired; the price of ferrochrome has been running steadily, and factories are mainly fulfilling orders. The supply is relatively high, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year, and the loss pressure may also force more steel mills to actively reduce production, slightly easing the supply pressure. In the off - season of demand, the order releases in downstream fields such as home appliances and architectural decoration are limited, and market transactions are mainly based on rigid demand, with a low willingness for large - scale procurement. The social inventory is decreasing overall, but the reality of high inventory is still prominent. Overall, the futures are greatly affected by overall sentiment, the supply pressure in the fundamentals has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore end and nickel iron has been strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient. The short - term sentiment in the stainless - steel market has improved, but the supply - demand game in the fundamentals continues. It is expected to adjust through shocks in the short term, with a reference range of 12500 - 13200 for the main contract. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the news from the nickel - ore end and the implementation of steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures remained strong yesterday. The main contract LC2605 continued to rise by 5.89% to 124720 at the close after approaching the daily limit at the end of the session and then reducing positions and falling back, with high capital sentiment. There is a lot of incremental news. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the trading time on December 26, the daily opening - position limits for non - futures - company members or clients in contracts LC2601, LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 shall not exceed 400 lots respectively, and those in contracts LC2606, LC2607, LC2608, LC2610, LC2610, LC2611, and LC2612 shall not exceed 800 lots respectively. The minimum order quantity for trading instructions has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, and the minimum closing - order quantity remains 1 lot. In addition, Jiemian News reported that according to a person close to CATL, the lithium - ore mining project in the lower reaches is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the supply and demand are both strong. The production data last week maintained a slight increase. Recently, the increment of new salt - lake lithium - extraction projects has been partially released. After the completion of maintenance of some projects, the lithium - extraction production from spodumene is expected to increase in December, while the production from mica remains stable with a slight decrease. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of large enterprises. The recycling end has shown a slight upward trend recently. The downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. In the off - season, the market's production - schedule expectations for downstream industries in January are mostly a slight month - on - month decrease, mainly driven by the reduction in ternary materials for power batteries. The inventory reduction slowed down last week. The inventories of upstream smelters and downstream sectors continued to decrease, while the inventories of battery - cell factories and traders increased. The high off - balance - sheet hidden inventory may also pose a certain pressure. The short - term balance fundamentals support the price to some extent, but there is limited new driving force in the future. Recently, the futures performance has deviated from the spot market in the capital - driven market. Negative news may suppress sentiment, intensifying the long - short game. The futures may retreat and then fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 118,000 - 122,000 for the main contract [17]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized. The futures price has oscillated and rebounded by 145 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton. Both supply and demand are stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of industrial - silicon production reduction is further increasing. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation. The expectation of joint production cuts by multiple leading enterprises to support prices is rising. Currently, the weekly production has decreased slightly without obvious changes, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress. The expectation of rising coal prices also provides support at the bottom. It is expected that the weak supply - demand situation will continue in December. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the decrease in industrial - silicon production. It is still expected that the industrial - silicon price will oscillate at a low level, with the main price - fluctuation range likely to be between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If the production does decrease significantly, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/ton upwards. However, if polysilicon production is significantly reduced, the price will fall [19]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly declined, and the futures price has oscillated, declined, and then recovered, rising by 380 yuan/ton to 59225 yuan/ton. The exchange announced that non - futures - company members or clients shall not open more than 200 lots in each contract on a single day. Against the background of weak demand, upstream enterprises hope to drive up the prices of the entire industrial chain by supporting prices. Recently, downstream enterprises have raised their quotes under the pressure of rising raw - material prices. The prices of silicon wafers have increased by 2 - 4%, the prices of battery cells have increased by 5%, and the prices of components have increased slightly by 0.15%, but the profits are still under pressure. From the perspective of terminal installation, after the new policy, due to the relatively concentrated power - generation time of photovoltaic installations, the advantage of more dispersed power - generation time of new - energy wind power has emerged, so the integrated development of wind, solar, and energy storage may be a more profitable development direction. For the photovoltaic industrial chain to increase the overall price level, the demand side needs to find more application scenarios to absorb the gradually rising costs. The polysilicon price will still oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a significant premium to the spot market. Attention should be paid to the production - reduction amplitude or the pressure of price decline. In terms of trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the subsequent production - reduction situation and the acceptance of price adjustments. The open interest of the near - month contract has decreased to 12,700 lots, and the open interest of the 2602 contract is 28,900 lots. Investors are still reminded to pay attention to position management [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper: The current price is 94,690 yuan/ton, up 1,220 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous day. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount: - 310 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The refined - scrap spread is 3,544 yuan/ton, up 409.97 yuan/ton (13.08%) [1]. Monthly Fundamental Data (November) - Electrolytic copper production: 1.1031 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%) month - on - month. - Electrolytic copper imports: 0.2711 million tons, down 0.011 million tons (- 3.90%) month - on - month [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Imported copper - concentrate index: - 43.65 dollars/ton, down 0.57 dollars/ton (1.32%) week - on - week. - Domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory: 0.7314 million tons, down 0.0325 million tons (- 4.25%) week - on - week [1]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: 0.1684 million tons, up 0.0039 million tons (2.37%) week - on - week. - Bonded - area inventory: 0.0766 million tons, up 0.0011 million tons (1.46%) week - on - week. - SHFE inventory: 0.0958 million tons, up 0.0064 million tons (7.18%) week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread