贵金属期现日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, driven by multiple factors, some investors choose to pre - "rush" to allocate precious metals, with continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivatives positions. In the absence of clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [1] - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, and the domestic inventory increase may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipt inventory, and regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative bulls taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to continue holding long positions, reduce positions or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival. [1] - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro - and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Driven by funds, value reshaping is expected, and they are likely to continue to oscillate upward in the medium - to long - term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures are in the early listing stage, the overall position liquidity needs improvement, and the domestic price shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks, and palladium may experience a significant correction due to its weak fundamentals. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17609 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.10% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 657.65 yuan/gram on December 24, up 6.08% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 578.45 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.62% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4505.40 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 71.88 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1821.00 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2221.83 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1683.58 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 8.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1007.22 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17714 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.88% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 607 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.08% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was -7.46, up 0.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 1.20% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 105, up 126 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.50% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was -26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was -0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The price ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 62.68 on December 24, down 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 57.62 on December 24, down 6.59% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.25 on December 24, up 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.14 on December 24, down 2.34% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15% on December 24, down 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47% on December 24, down 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91% on December 24, down 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.95 on December 24, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0076 on December 24, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 93711 kilograms on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 881949 kilograms on December 24, down 1.97% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36159361 ounces on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451352686 ounces on December 24, up 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19321904 ounces on December 24, up 0.60% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127214282 ounces on December 24, down 1.09% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1068 tons on December 24, up 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16447 tons on December 24, down 0.34% from the previous day [1].