永安期货有色早报-20251225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core Views - For copper, the long - term TC for copper concentrate is set at $0/ton next year, having little impact on the market. The domestic market may see a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival, and the overall idea is to buy on dips with the price expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - For aluminum, the import of primary aluminum decreased in November while exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but the falling inventory supports the price, which is expected to be in a volatile range [1]. - For zinc, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined, and the price dropped. The supply side has a tightening trend, and the demand side is seasonally weak. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [3][4][5]. - For nickel, the pure nickel output decreased slightly. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. There is a game between short - term policy and fundamentals [8]. - For stainless steel, the steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [10]. - For lead, the lead price decreased slightly. Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan [11][13]. - For tin, the tin price rose rapidly due to macro factors. The supply side may increase production, and the demand side is weak. There are short - term risks and long - term uncertainties [16]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in December, with the price fluctuating with costs in the short - term and facing over - capacity in the long - term [17]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to factors like mining rights cancellation. The supply and demand are both strong, but demand may weaken. The price needs certain conditions to rise further [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 431, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [1]. - Market Outlook: The long - term TC for copper concentrate has little impact. The domestic market may see a slight inventory build - up, and the overall idea is to buy on dips with the price expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory increased by 1,450 tons [1]. - Market Outlook: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, domestic apparent demand is weak, but the falling inventory supports the price, which is expected to be in a volatile range [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 170, and the LME inventory increased by 7,900 tons. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from $90.6 to - $30.61 [3][4][5]. - Market Outlook: The supply side has a tightening trend, and the demand side is seasonally weak. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 5,350, and the LME inventory increased by 1,092 tons [8]. - Market Outlook: The pure nickel output decreased slightly. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. There is a game between short - term policy and fundamentals [8]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 55 [10]. - Market Outlook: The steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [10]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the lead price decreased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [11][13]. - Market Outlook: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan [13]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the tin price rose rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 220 tons [16]. - Market Outlook: The tin price rose due to macro factors. The supply side may increase production, and the demand side is weak. There are short - term risks and long - term uncertainties [16]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 80, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased by 80. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 84 [17]. - Market Outlook: The supply and demand are expected to be balanced in December, with the price fluctuating with costs in the short - term and facing over - capacity in the long - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 18 - 24, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 2,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 450 [21]. - Market Outlook: The price increased due to factors like mining rights cancellation. The supply and demand are both strong, but demand may weaken. The price needs certain conditions to rise further [21].