大越期货沪铜早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with supply disruptions, relaxed scrap - copper policies, and a marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish; the inventory situation is neutral; the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disruptions with smelter production cuts and relaxed scrap - copper policies. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 94810 with a basis of - 1290, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are short, and short positions increased [2]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia is fermenting, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influential Factors: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are considered in the logic, but no clear separation between positive and negative factors is given [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12060000 tons, imports were 3730000 tons, exports were 460000 tons, apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].