大越期货燃料油早报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit margins have slowed due to sufficient immediate supply and weak downstream demand. The spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel remained stable. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to get some support in 2026, but competition from clean alternative fuels and sufficient supply of sanctioned cargoes will continue to pressure the market fundamentals. The upstream crude oil has rebounded and stabilized slightly. During the Christmas holiday, the price is expected to be relatively stable. FU2603 will operate in the 2450 - 2500 range, and LU2603 will operate in the 3000 - 3040 range [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The current situation of the fuel oil market is as follows: the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot is at par with the futures; the inventory is neutral; the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line being flat; the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are both long - positions, with high - sulfur long - positions decreasing and low - sulfur long - positions increasing. The expected price ranges for FU2603 and LU2603 are given [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise Factors: Russian fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Likely to Fall Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market Drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fuel Oil Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by supply and demand, while high - sulfur fuel oil has support but also faces pressure [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 18 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 5 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 17 was 2255.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels [3] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3] - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are long - positions with a decrease in long - positions; low - sulfur main positions are long - positions with an increase in long - positions [3] 3.4 Spread Data - Futures Price Changes: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 8 to 2474, a decrease of 0.32%; the price of the LU main contract futures increased by 6 to 3006, an increase of 0.20%. The FU basis increased by 12.95 to 18, an increase of 267.74%; the LU basis decreased by 4 to 5, a decrease of 43.94% [5] - Spot Price Changes: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions, such as Zhoushan and Singapore, all showed an upward trend, with the increase range from 0.44% to 2.01% [6] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated from October 8 to December 17. As of December 17, the inventory was 2255.9 million barrels, with an increase of 14 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]