大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of coking coal is expected to weaken in the short - term due to limited supply release, cautious downstream purchasing, and weak downstream profits. The overall procurement mentality is weak, but low - level inventory may limit the decline [2]. - The price of coke is also expected to be weak in the short - term. With stable or increasing supply, slow sales, and the influence of falling raw material costs and weak steel prices, the supply - demand situation is further relaxed [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some mines have limited production or stopped production after completing annual tasks, resulting in limited supply. Downstream and traders are cautious, affecting coal sales. The online auction market shows a slowdown, and the overall price is weakening; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1140, and the basis is 8, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Downstream profits are poor, and the enthusiasm for production increase is low. There will be no large - scale replenishment in the short - term, and the price is expected to be weak [2]. Daily Views - Coke - Fundamentals: Some coking coal prices are falling, giving coking enterprises certain profits. Coking enterprises maintain their previous production levels, and supply is stable or increasing. However, downstream steel mills' purchasing willingness is low, and traders are on the sidelines. Coke inventory is accumulating; bearish [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 136, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coke is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [6]. - Expectation: Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm is still high, and inventory continues to accumulate. With falling raw material costs and weak steel prices, the supply - demand situation is further relaxed, and the price is expected to be weak [6]. Price - On December 24, 2025, the prices of most port metallurgical coke varieties showed a downward trend. For example, the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke from Shanxi in some ports decreased by 20, while a few varieties such as the dry - quenched quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Langhui increased by 50 [9]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].