大越期货油脂早报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8208, with a basis of 444, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8520, with a basis of 32, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, and it will enter the production - increase season, with an increase in palm oil supply [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9668, with a basis of 688, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis - Likely to Rise: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - Likely to Fall: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].