建信期货工业硅日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures prices are running strongly, but the fundamentals are difficult to provide upward drivers, and the rebound resistance of the futures prices is increasing marginally. The supply and demand of industrial silicon still show a loose pattern, and the spot prices remain stable. The expected output in the supply side is about 360,000 tons per month, and the output in the southwest production area will reach a low point. The demand side shows that the weekly operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and the large - scale centralized production cuts are not sustainable. The expected output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January may be significantly reduced, which may have a significant negative impact on industrial silicon if the expectation is fulfilled [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the SI2605 contract of industrial silicon futures is 8,860 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.43%. The trading volume is 322,150 lots, the open interest is 218,190 lots, with a net increase of 4,414 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty increased by 2,773 lots, and the net short positions increased by 5,753 lots [4]. - The spot prices remain stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan is 9,200 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan is 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 24th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,259 lots, an increase of 84 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25%. The weekly output was 80,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73% [5]. - The quotation increase of polysilicon is different from the actual transaction. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish inventory. However, supported by industry self - discipline and policies, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and the spot transaction price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the monthly output is expected to be about 360,000 tons. The output in the southwest production area will reach a low point, the start - up in the northern production area is relatively stable, and the far - month is mainly based on the resumption of production in the wet season. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and the large - scale centralized production cuts are not sustainable. The Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that the expected output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. If the expectation is fulfilled, it will have a significant negative impact on industrial silicon (still to be observed). The supply and demand are still in a loose pattern, the fundamentals are difficult to provide upward drivers, and the futures prices will also face the selling pressure of the return of warehouse receipts after a large - scale rebound, with the rebound resistance increasing marginally [4].