建信期货多晶硅日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for polysilicon is showing a cautious and moderately strong trend. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, causing the market price to break through resistance levels and resonate with the technical aspects. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been taking measures to release rational signals and reduce positions. Also, the certainty of the improvement in the fundamental situation is not significant yet, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the entire industry chain for a re - distribution of industrial profits. The supply side may see positive effects as the expected polysilicon output in January is to be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but this requires continuous observation. The price has formed a downward trend on the minute - line chart and is in the upward adjustment stage. After breaking below the support level of 58,000 yuan, it has not resumed its upward trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract is 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume is 197,440 lots, and the open interest is 127,084 lots, a net decrease of 4,519 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 traders decreased by 493 lots, and the net short positions decreased by 3,038 lots [4]. - Spot Price: This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4]. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to run cautiously and moderately strong. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been reducing positions. The improvement in the fundamental situation is not certain, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the industry chain. The expected reduction in polysilicon output in January is a positive factor for the supply side but needs continuous observation. Pay attention to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3.2. Market News - On December 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,960 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its registration, marking the official launch of the long - awaited "polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" [5]. - The estimated polysilicon output in December is 113,500 tons, and there may still be some production reduction plans in the future [5]. - According to the notice of Guangzhou Futures Exchange (No. 420 [2025]), starting from the trading time on December 22, 2025, for polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612, the minimum opening order quantity per transaction has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity per transaction remains at 1 lot [5].