白糖日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The main March contract rose 1.20% to 15.17 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.3% to $431.90 per ton. Agricultural consulting agency Safras predicted on Monday that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would decrease by 5% compared with the previous season, which boosted the sugar price in terms of news. Raw sugar remained in a sideways oscillation overall [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded significantly. The 05 contract closed at 5,262 yuan per ton, up 119 yuan or 2.31%, with a reduction of 42,820 lots in positions. The new domestic sugar price was raised. The price in Nanning was 5,375 yuan per ton, and in Kunming was 5,220 yuan per ton. There were rumors in the market that the state would purchase and store sugar, which could not be confirmed. The recent two - day rebound might be related to this. Future policy changes should be monitored. After the market closed, it was found that the funds of most short - position seats reduced significantly, while there was no obvious chasing - up funds from the long side [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures market conditions: The main March contract of New York raw sugar futures rose 1.20% to 15.17 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.3% to $431.90 per ton. The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,262 yuan per ton, up 119 yuan or 2.31%, with a reduction of 42,820 lots in positions [7][8]. - Domestic sugar price: The new domestic sugar price was raised. The price in Nanning was 5,375 yuan per ton, and in Kunming was 5,220 yuan per ton [8]. - Market rumors and speculation: There were rumors of state sugar purchase and storage, which could not be confirmed. The recent rebound might be related to this. Attention should be paid to policy changes. After the market closed, most short - position funds reduced significantly, and there was no obvious long - side chasing - up funds [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - Brazil's sugar production forecast: Agricultural consulting agency Safras & Mercado said that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season was expected to reach 38 million tons, a 5% decrease compared with the previous season. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season was expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than 43.5 million tons in the previous year. The sugarcane crushing volume in this region in the 2026/27 season was expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than 595 million tons in the previous year. It was expected that sugar mills would use 47% of sugarcane for sugar production in the 2026/27 season, lower than 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - Sugar mill opening in Yunnan: From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills in Yunnan started production. It was expected that 2 - 3 more sugar mills would start production this week. As of now, 35 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production in the 2025/26 season, 5 more than the same period last year. The expected sugarcane crushing capacity was 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day compared with the same period last year [9]. - Philippines' sugar import ban: The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar would be extended to December 2026 to protect the local sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The domestic raw sugar production had rebounded, which was an important basis for this policy adjustment. The department would strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. 3.3数据概览 - Relevant data charts: The report provided charts including spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][17][20][23]. - Trading and position data of the top 20 seats: The total trading volume was 625,018 lots, an increase of 333,602 lots; the total long - position volume was 309,454 lots, a decrease of 4,655 lots; the total short - position volume was 376,895 lots, a decrease of 14,683 lots [23].