建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251225

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: December 25, 2025 - Industry: Polyolefin [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the polyolefin market is increasing as the maintenance loss of devices in December has declined significantly and the previously shut - down devices are restarting. The demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The rebound of polyolefin futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: The plastic 2601 contract opened at 6256 yuan/ton, closed at 6350 yuan/ton, up 1.73% with a position decrease of 11664 lots to 50532 lots. The plastic 2605 contract opened at 6310 yuan/ton, closed at 6408 yuan/ton, up 1.99% with a position decrease of 41207 lots to 540352 lots. The plastic 2609 contract opened at 6342 yuan/ton, closed at 6445 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position increase of 292 lots to 23865 lots. The PP2601 contract opened at 6062 yuan/ton, closed at 6187 yuan/ton, up 1.89% with a position decrease of 15404 lots to 61519 lots. The PP2605 contract opened at 6166 yuan/ton, closed at 6278 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position decrease of 18588 lots to 539752 lots. The PP2609 contract opened at 6203 yuan/ton, closed at 6300 yuan/ton, up 1.55% with a position increase of 5439 lots to 39130 lots [3]. - Market Situation Analysis: The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The downstream load of PE has mostly declined, and although the PP start - up rate is basically stable, factories are mainly digesting inventory and have low willingness to make new purchases. The futures market has a slight increase, but the spot price remains weak, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [4]. 2. Industry News - Inventory: On December 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - PE Market: The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton, in East China 6230 - 6700 yuan/ton, and in South China 6250 - 6650 yuan/ton [5]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5700 - 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply is abundant, and the overall trading improvement is not obvious [5]. - PP Market: The PP market has a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire are in the range of 5920 - 6060 yuan/ton, in East China 6020 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in South China 6100 - 6330 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][15]