贵金属日评-20251225

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - In the short - term, due to factors such as the speculation of the US federal government shutdown, the call for Fed rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar index, the precious metals sector will continue to operate strongly, especially industrial precious metals. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and short - sellers should reduce their positions. During the Christmas period, due to low trading volume and high price volatility, investors are advised to reduce their positions appropriately [4]. - In the medium - term, in 2026, the gold price will continue to be strong, with London gold expected to reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce. London silver is expected to reach $80 - 83.3 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio will drop to around 60. London platinum is expected to reach $2800 - 2950 per ounce, and the London gold - platinum ratio will drop to around 1.7. London palladium is expected to basically follow the gold trend, with an annual target of $2180 - 2280 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, short - sellers should reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold [5]. Group 4: Market Conditions Intraday Market - Although the US Q3 economic growth rate far exceeded market expectations and pushed up US Treasury yields, the speculation of the federal government shutdown and the call for Fed rate cuts led to the decline of the US dollar index below 98. The precious metals sector was pushed up by liquidity premium and currency value factors. The platinum and palladium markets on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise, but there was an internal adjustment risk due to the recent price surge. During the Christmas period, trading volume was low and price volatility increased [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate % | Open Interest | Position Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 1,015.98 | 1,024.65 | 1,002.59 | 1,016.64 | 0.06% | 359,804 | - 10801 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 16,448 | 17,655 | 16,431 | 17,608 | 7.05% | 818,578 | 24354 | | Guangzhou Platinum Index | 620.16 | 662.37 | 655.25 | 662.33 | 6.80% | 48,007 | 3569 | | Guangzhou Palladium Index | 532.71 | 578.62 | 559.21 | 578.62 | 8.62% | 25,929 | 3123 | [5] Group 5: Main Macro Events/Data - The initial estimate of the US Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.3% on an annualized quarterly basis, the fastest since Q3 2023, driven by strong consumer spending and a significant rebound in exports. Other data showed that the US consumer confidence in December deteriorated, and concerns about employment and income deepened. In November, manufacturing output was flat, and industrial output increased by 0.2% [18]. - The Trump administration announced that it would impose tariffs on semiconductor products imported from China, but the action would be postponed until June 2027 [18]. - According to the Bank of Canada's meeting minutes, before the interest - rate decision on December 10, the governing council found it difficult to predict whether the next move would be a rate hike or a rate cut [18].